A random mental walk.

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Death Cross

The financial news is trumpeting the "Death Cross" the day a short time moving average, typically 50 days falls below a long term moving average, typically a 100- or 200-day moving average.
The smart money (if such a thing exists) will head for the most stable stocks to preserve capital.  I'm guessing that companies that governments need will do well.  The only group I could identify which should do well in stringent financial times are those doing infrastructure testing and specialized maintenance.

The simplistic reasoning is this: governments trying to minimize expenses will hire these firms to verify where they can scrimp without jeopardizing public safety.  All it will take to give these firms a real boost is another incident like the Minneapolis bridge collapse in August of 2007.   (The thought sprung to mind because the Death Cross chart reminded me of images of the Interstate 35W bridge catastrophe.   On seeing the image again I admit that the lines don't cross.  Credit the association to the power of imagination.)

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